I. Market Price Analysis In the fourth quarter of 2025,
the price of titanium dioxide in China experienced a fluctuating trend. By the end of the quarter, the ex-factory price (including tax) of rutile titanium dioxide was RMB 12,600-13,600/ton, and the ex-factory price (including tax) of anatase titanium dioxide was RMB 11,800-12,200/ton. Compared to the beginning of the quarter, the price of rutile titanium dioxide (RMB 12,700-13,200/ton) increased by approximately RMB 150/ton, a rise of 1.16%; the price of anatase titanium dioxide (RMB 11,600-11,800/ton) increased by approximately RMB 300/ton, a rise of 2.56%. The titanium dioxide market experienced three rounds of price increases from October to December, mainly due to the high price of raw materials. On September 30th, Longbai Group issued a letter announcing a price increase of 300 yuan/ton starting October 10th. Other titanium dioxide companies followed suit. Sulfuric acid prices had been rising significantly since October, leading to losses for some companies and supporting the titanium dioxide price increase. However, the peak season demand of September and October was prematurely exhausted, resulting in poor sales in October, and some companies lowered prices at the end of the month. During the off-season, November saw continued sluggish titanium dioxide prices, with little improvement in sales for any company. Furthermore, rising costs weakened production willingness. In late November, Longbai began implementing a multi-rebate policy. As titanium dioxide prices bottomed out, downstream users and distributors stocked up, and factories reduced inventory, leading to another price surge at the end of the month, with some prices increasing by 300-500 yuan/ton. In December, the market saw another increase of 200-300 yuan/ton. This was due to previous stockpiling, high costs, and a recovery in foreign trade demand, with increased exports to countries like India, resulting in firm new order prices for companies. Titanium dioxide prices rose slightly in the fourth quarter, but market demand was largely exhausted by previous periods, and the pressure of implementing new prices was also significant. In addition, increased production in December and the anticipated weakening of pre-Chinese New Year stockpiling demand in the first quarter, coupled with substantial production cost pressures, made it difficult for titanium dioxide prices to rise or fall. Average monthly price of titanium dioxide in the fourth quarter:
II. Market Forecast and Analysis:
The global economy in 2025 is showing fragile resilience. Despite impacts from US tariffs and geopolitical factors, the annual growth rate is expected to remain at 3.1%-3.2%, with emerging markets remaining the main drivers of growth. In 2025, China's economy is also undergoing in-depth structural adjustments, with emerging industries rising, but traditional downstream demand remains weak, and the deep adjustment in the real estate market is affecting upstream and downstream raw materials. In the fourth quarter, the titanium dioxide market experienced high cost pressures and a struggle between domestic and foreign trade demand. The relationship between sulfuric acid process and chloride process titanium dioxide gradually diverged significantly. Although titanium dioxide prices rose passively, it was still difficult to offset long-term losses, and companies faced significant pressure. The release of new capacity and the contraction of old capacity slowed the growth rate of the titanium dioxide industry, and prices returned to the levels of the third quarter. The real estate industry is expected to enter a "new stable state" in 2026. Although demand is unlikely to see a significant boost, essential demand will continue to provide strong support, and the development of emerging industries may provide further impetus to titanium dioxide demand next year. Exports to India and other emerging countries are expected to continue to increase slightly, while new domestic production capacity will be released again in the first quarter. However, under current costs, titanium dioxide prices are unlikely to decline, and market prices are likely to remain firm in the first quarter. The titanium dioxide market is expected to continue its sluggish trend in 2026, and competition between sulfuric acid process and chloride process titanium dioxide is expected to intensify.
